Possible scenario
Credible Truce Diplomacy
35% Chance
Russia's offer becomes a real diplomatic track because Tehran wants to avoid a wider U.S. campaign and Moscow wants leverage with Washington. Oman and Qatar remain essential intermediaries, with Russia providing political cover for Iran rather than acting as the sole broker.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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