Possible scenario
Contained Diplomatic Failure
30% Chance
Russia's offer is judged in Washington as an attempt to shield Iran and elevate Moscow's role, not a workable settlement plan. The war continues through calibrated strikes and backchannels, but neither side immediately chooses full regional escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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