Possible scenario
Retaliation Raises War Risk
18% Chance
Moscow could respond to the Ilsky strike with a visible escalation against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This would increase geopolitical risk premia, though a direct NATO-Russia confrontation remains unlikely.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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