Possible scenario
Supreme Court Intervenes
17% Chance
The dispute escalates rapidly through emergency litigation because it touches executive power over congressionally appropriated funds. The Supreme Court’s handling of a stay request becomes the key signal for whether the administration can continue centralized control of NIH grant obligations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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