Possible scenario
Managed Export Diversification
45% Chance
Baghdad uses the Gulf crisis to accelerate a practical diversification strategy rather than a full strategic realignment. The most likely path is a staged return of Kirkuk-Ceyhan flows, continued Basra loadings where possible, and incremental use of land corridors through Turkey and Jordan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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