Possible scenario
Gulf Disruption Deepens
25% Chance
The Gulf crisis worsens enough to interfere with insurance, tanker scheduling or loading windows around southern Iraq. Iraq's alternative routes help at the margin but cannot fully replace Basra export capacity in the near term.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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