Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
20% Chance
A controlled escalation is possible if Israel judges Iran's enrichment progress unacceptable or if Iranian-aligned groups attack US or Gulf targets. The fighting remains geographically limited, but markets price higher oil-supply and regional-security risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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