Possible scenario
Interim De-Escalation Deal
25% Chance
A limited diplomatic arrangement remains plausible because both Tehran and Washington have incentives to avoid another regional war. The deal would likely stop short of a full nuclear accord, focusing on enrichment limits, monitoring, and sanctions waivers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Services +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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