Possible scenario
Cuts Largely Proceed
40% Chance
The administration implements the new eligibility restrictions despite objections from Democratic-led states and immigrant-rights groups. Because the cuts were already embedded in the 2025 tax law and took effect on Oct. 1, inertia favors continued enforcement unless courts intervene quickly.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.1%
Tickers
- THC-0.4%
- MOH-0.2%
- CNC-0.2%
- HCA-0.2%
- ELV-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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