Possible scenario
Partial Export Ban
18% Chance
The US follows through with a limited ban or licensing freeze on diesel exports to Europe after judging the EU response insufficient. This is a sharper sector-specific shock, especially for refiners, European industrial users, and transport-sensitive cyclicals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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