Possible scenario
No Deal, No Strikes
25% Chance
Iran presses for wider sanctions relief and refuses firm enrichment limits before the election, but the White House still avoids military action. The result is a tense holding pattern with limited immediate market impact because the near-term strike risk remains capped.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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