Possible scenario
Sanctions Lead Response
38% Chance
Washington treats the new intelligence as primarily a sanctions and export-control problem rather than a trigger for immediate military escalation. The Treasury Department, Commerce Department and State Department coordinate designations against Chinese intermediaries, Iranian Defense Ministry procurement offices and IRGC-linked front companies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.