Possible scenario
Limited Military Deterrence
27% Chance
The U.S. reinforces bases in Jordan, Iraq and Syria and may conduct limited strikes on Iran-backed militia infrastructure. The objective is deterrence without directly attacking China-linked actors or Iranian territory, making this a controlled but market-relevant escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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