Possible scenario
Juvenile Prosecution Proceeds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the case remains a juvenile attempted-murder prosecution focused on premeditation, access to the weapon, and the claimed bullying motive. French authorities are likely to combine criminal proceedings with psychiatric assessments and a review of school warning signs.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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