Possible scenario
Rates Resume Climb
20% Chance
The pause at 7.4% could prove brief if Treasury yields continue rising after hawkish Fed commentary or firm inflation data. A renewed move higher would deepen affordability stress and pressure homebuilders, mortgage lenders, and real estate services.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
- Finance -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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