Possible scenario
Rates Drift Lower
25% Chance
A softer inflation or growth reading could pull Treasury yields down and let mortgage rates retreat modestly from 7.4%. That would not restore affordability quickly, but it would improve sentiment toward builders, mortgage originators, and housing-linked cyclicals.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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