Possible scenario
High-Rate Plateau
45% Chance
The most likely path is that mortgage rates stabilize near current levels while affordability remains historically poor. Buyers pause, sellers stay locked into low-rate mortgages, and housing activity slows without an immediate nationwide price correction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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