Possible scenario
Probe Loses Momentum
25% Chance
The investigation remains active but fails to produce a complaint quickly, either because evidence is weak or agencies are split on litigation risk. Omar and House Democrats frame the delay as proof the probe was politically driven, while the administration avoids an immediate courtroom defeat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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