Possible scenario
Major Hurricane Shock
15% Chance
TD Nine rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane and tracks toward the central or western Gulf energy corridor. This lower-probability outcome would create a material but still localized energy shock, with the largest market moves concentrated in crude, refiners, utilities and Gulf-exposed producers.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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