Possible scenario
Wider Military Clash
20% Chance
The sinking of a mine-hit vessel increases pressure on the United States and Gulf partners to directly target IRGC maritime assets. This scenario becomes more likely if another commercial ship is struck or crew casualties are confirmed.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.