Possible scenario
Prolonged Traffic Collapse
30% Chance
Iran’s mine-laying and tanker attacks keep owners, insurers, and charterers from using the strait at normal volumes. Gulf exporters reroute what they can through pipelines and storage, but a meaningful share of crude and LNG traffic remains delayed.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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