Possible scenario
Convoy Containment
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a rapid U.S.-led maritime security response that restores some confidence without immediately ending Iranian mine and drone threats. Washington, London, and Gulf navies prioritize mine-clearing and escorted transit to prevent a complete energy-shipping shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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