Possible scenario
Military Escalation Widens
18% Chance
A fresh tanker strike or mine incident draws a direct US or Gulf military response against Iranian assets. The market shifts from pricing shipping disruption to pricing a wider regional confrontation and a higher probability of temporary energy rationing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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