Possible scenario
Hazard Corridor Holds
42% Chance
Shipowners absorb extreme captain bonuses, war-risk insurance, and armed escort costs rather than abandon the route. The most likely near-term outcome is continued crude movement through the Strait of Hormuz at reduced efficiency, with freight costs elevated but no full stop in exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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