Possible scenario
Attrition Tightens Flows
30% Chance
Iranian harassment, drone attacks, or mines continue without a decisive military break. Oil exports persist, but fewer captains accept the voyage, insurers impose tighter exclusions, and effective Hormuz throughput falls materially.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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