Scenario description
Assume Tesla does not begin external customer leasing or comparable paid external commercial deployment of Optimus by March 31, 2027, and Tesla statements, filings, or credible reporting tie the continued precommercial status to unresolved Optimus production, component-supply, durability, automation-equipment, autonomy, reliability, service-support, cost, or manufacturing-readiness constraints. In this world, Optimus activity may continue inside Tesla facilities for development, training, data collection, factory tasks, or precommercial testing, and Tesla may adjust AI hardware specifications or other inputs to improve manufacturing availability, but no qualifying non-Tesla paid commercial deployment has begun by the cutoff. Reported production rates, customer discussions, affected components, and remedial specification changes remain limited to what sources disclose.