Possible scenario
Sanctions Pressure Persists
20% Chance
Washington maintains or tightens enforcement against the Iran-China oil supply chain despite the personnel change in Tehran. Paknejad's adviser role then becomes a continuity mechanism for sanctions evasion logistics rather than a diplomatic signal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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