Possible scenario
Negotiation-Friendly Reset
25% Chance
The adviser appointment helps Pezeshkian manage factions while keeping space open for talks following Trump's offer of sanctions relief for nuclear progress. The personnel reshuffle is interpreted as a way to avoid alienating conservatives while preparing for a possible diplomatic channel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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