Possible scenario
Continuity At Oil Ministry
45% Chance
Pezeshkian uses Mohsen Paknejad's adviser role to preserve institutional continuity while Bovard runs the ministry in an acting capacity. This is the most likely outcome because Iran's oil export apparatus is under sanctions pressure and abrupt policy disruption would be costly.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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