Possible scenario
Western Unity Frays
15% Chance
The Trump administration could use the Abu Dhabi process to pressure Kyiv toward a settlement while Zelensky refuses to cede territory. That would create tension between Washington, Kyiv, and European capitals, especially if sanctions relief or future US military aid becomes part of the bargaining.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- LMT-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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