Possible scenario
Talks Produce Stalemate
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the November Abu Dhabi talks occur but fail to bridge the core dispute over territory. Zelensky is unlikely to accept territorial concessions, while Putin has just rejected a frontline freeze and continues to demand Donbas.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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