Possible scenario
Negotiations Precede Escalation
15% Chance
Moscow may intensify military pressure before or during talks to improve leverage, especially given Putin’s demand for Donbas. Kyiv may also harden its position if Russia pairs diplomacy with battlefield escalation, raising the chance of a failed summit and renewed Western sanctions debate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
- Technology -1.1%
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- LMT+1.9%
- RTX+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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