Possible scenario
Limited Ceasefire Steps
25% Chance
A limited confidence-building arrangement is possible because all three parties have incentives to show diplomatic progress without resolving sovereignty questions. Such an outcome would likely focus on energy infrastructure, Black Sea security, or prisoner exchanges rather than territorial recognition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.7%
- Technology +0.4%
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- LMT-0.7%
- ADM+0.4%
- BG+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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