Possible scenario
Term Premium Repricing
30% Chance
Markets focus on the combination of $2 trillion US deficits, elevated interest costs, and heavier issuance across advanced economies. The result is a modest bear-steepening impulse rather than a full fiscal crisis.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.7%
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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