Possible scenario
Allegations Lose Traction
34% Chance
The most likely path is that the story remains damaging but does not fundamentally alter the Alaska Senate race. Without new documents, recordings, or named corroborating witnesses, many voters treat the former-staffer allegations through a partisan lens and the Sullivan-Peltola contest remains competitive.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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