Possible scenario
Voluntary Standards Advance
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is a nonbinding international framework built around model evaluations, incident reporting, and shared safety terminology. This follows the path of the 2023 UK AI Safety Summit and fits what the U.S., OpenAI, Anthropic, and allied governments can realistically achieve without a treaty.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- MSFT+0.9%
- AMZN+0.6%
- META-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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