Possible scenario
Geopolitical Fragmentation Persists
25% Chance
The UN process stalls because major powers disagree over sovereignty, surveillance, export controls, and the role of U.S.-based AI companies. The result is a fragmented rulebook, with companies navigating different standards in the U.S., EU, China, and allied markets.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-0.5%
- AMD-0.3%
- AMZN+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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