Possible scenario
Weekend Riot Escalation
30% Chance
The Belfort attack becomes a rallying point for both student protesters and police unions, feeding a wider weekend escalation. France faces renewed clashes near schools, transport hubs, and city centers, with Belgium seeing copycat disturbances.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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