Possible scenario
Plot Disrupted
27% Chance
A credible far-right plot is disrupted before execution, validating the decision to raise the terror level. This would reinforce public concern but also demonstrate that intelligence and policing channels are functioning.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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