Possible scenario
Attack Or Unrest
18% Chance
A less likely but higher-impact scenario is that the warning is followed by an attack, attempted attack, or serious street violence. The market reaction would still likely be localized and short-lived unless casualties are high or transport networks are disrupted.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.