Possible scenario
Controls Escalate
25% Chance
The CXMT breakthrough strengthens arguments in Washington that existing chip controls failed to slow China's memory self-sufficiency. The most plausible policy path is a targeted tightening of tools, components and service access rather than a full semiconductor embargo.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- AMAT-1.9%
- LRCX-1.9%
- MU-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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