Possible scenario
Commercial Delay Risk
20% Chance
Even without a legal block, lenders, insurers or contractors may demand additional protections because the political dispute is becoming more visible. The most likely commercial impact is a modest delay, higher contingency costs or tougher risk allocation rather than project cancellation.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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