Possible scenario
Limited War Resumes
22% Chance
The ceasefire plan fails and direct Iran-Israel strikes restart, but both sides initially avoid the most economically disruptive targets. This is a plausible escalation because the headline signals military readiness and a stalled U.S. response, yet all parties still have incentives to cap the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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