Possible scenario
Ceasefire Framework Holds
38% Chance
Qatar-mediated diplomacy produces enough ambiguity for Tehran, Washington and Israel to avoid an immediate return to open strikes. The most likely path is a fragile pause because all sides retain leverage while testing whether sanctions and nuclear issues can be sequenced.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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