Possible scenario
Ratings Decision Dominates
18% Chance
The next decisive catalyst could be a rating-agency response after Scope's downgrade and Fitch's warning. The market would react sharply to a downgrade, while an affirmation or softer language would produce a relief rally.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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