Scenario description
Assume the Sept. 30 French OAT market-pressure episode fades over the observation window. By the resolution date, the 10-year France-Germany government-bond spread has closed below 120 basis points for a sustained period and no major sovereign-rating agency has taken an additional negative action on France’s long-term sovereign rating or outlook. The geography is France within eurozone sovereign-bond markets. The reported starting point remains the Sept. 30 MarketBrief account of a 124 basis-point spread and 10-year borrowing costs at their highest since 2002; the precise fiscal measures, auction mix, and investor flows behind any retracement are unspecified.