Possible scenario
Deadlock Deepens Selloff
32% Chance
A continued parliamentary stalemate is the main downside case after the sharp move in French yields. Investors would price a greater chance of a downgrade and wider euro-area sovereign spreads, though the immediate global spillover would likely remain moderate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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