Possible scenario
Budget Compromise Emerges
38% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that the bond selloff forces the National Assembly, Senate leaders and the Macron administration back toward a narrower fiscal compromise. France avoids an immediate institutional rupture, and investors begin to price a partial recovery in budget credibility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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