Possible scenario
Orderly Higher Path
45% Chance
The Bank of Japan keeps its normalization message hawkish but controlled, with officials emphasizing that the neutral-rate estimate is uncertain and may be too low. Markets price a somewhat higher terminal rate without assuming an abrupt near-term policy shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.8%
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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