Possible scenario
Tariff Escalation
38% Chance
China's record external surplus becomes further evidence for Washington and Brussels that overcapacity is being exported rather than absorbed at home. The most likely policy response is another round of targeted trade barriers, especially in EVs, batteries, solar equipment, steel and machinery.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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